Russian Military Defeat - Ukrainian soldiers sit inside a T-80 tank they claim was captured from the Russian military in Bakhmut, Ukraine, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Inna Varenitsia)
WASHINGTON - The Pentagon's international affairs chief said Monday that Russia's new losses in the strategic southern Kherson region are turning into a "major defeat" that would give Ukraine a defensive position amid "hot battles" expected this winter.
Russian Military Defeat
Following news that Ukrainian forces had breached Moscow's defenses in Kherson, which Moscow saw as a gateway to Odessa, Assistant Defense Secretary for International Security Celeste Wallander said the Ukrainians were pushing Russia's main bridgehead across the Dnieper River.
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"It would be a huge loss for Russia because it further undermines Russia's efforts to capture Odesa, which was one of the stated objectives earlier this year," Wallander said at an event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"It gives Ukraine a new defensive position to survive what is likely to be a hot fight over the winter," Wallander said, adding that despite Ukraine's recent strategic successes, the United States and the international community must continue to provide assistance to Ukraine.
Even Russia's recent loss of the city of Lyman, which its forces used as a logistics hub in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, would "significantly affect Russia's ability to supply, resupply and move its forces along this forward line of conflict," he said.
A senior US military official said Russian forces had withdrawn to Kremina, a town more than 30 kilometers east of Lyman. Russia's denial of Lyman could affect its supply lines on the eastern front to Bakhmut, a disputed town 60 kilometers south of Lyman, where fighting continues.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Sunday that Russian troops had been withdrawn from Lyman, one of four Ukrainian regions annexed by Russian President Vladimir Putin last week.
Putin's ground invasion threatened to take the conflict to a dangerous new level. After US President Joe Biden said last week that the US would never recognize Russia's territorial claims, Putin said he was considering using "all available means" to protect the region - which has been seen as a threat from the use of nuclear weapons.
U.S. Army soldiers demonstrate the capabilities of their vehicles to Assistant Secretary for International Security Celeste Wallander at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Force Base, Romania, May 11, 2022. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. Thurnapuf Valle, 5th De Mobileta Public Affment.
Speaking on the "Fareed Zakaria GPS" program on Sunday, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called Putin's threats an "illegal demand" and an "irresponsible statement."
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"This nuclear saber rattling is not what we expect from the leaders of major countries," Austin said, adding that while he had previously warned his Russian counterpart against that path, the decision was Putin's. .
"Mr. Putin does not check himself." Just as he made the irresponsible decision to invade Ukraine, he could make another decision. But right now I don't see anything that would lead me to believe that he made that decision," Austin said.
Separately, Wallander said NATO needed to defend its unity and nuclear capability in response to Russia's "easily dependent nuclear threat."
Asked about the alliance's plans after Russia invaded Ukraine seven months ago, Wallander praised NATO's new multinational battle groups on its eastern border. He also said that its members increasingly see spending targets as "a floor, not a ceiling" and want to focus their spending on both modernization and - bearing in mind Russia's hollow powers - on further education.
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"I think the old debate is 'Is it cable deterrence, is it deterrence by denying deterrence?' behind us now. "It is clear that an effective, credible defense capability is needed to deter an adversary, in this case Russia," Wallander said.
"What that credible defense looks like varies from region to region in Europe." It doesn't just include land forces, it includes air defense, it includes maritime, so it's multi-dimensional, but allies are really digging into what that looks like in their national capabilities, he said.
In addition to billions in military, economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Wallander said talks within the United States about aid for reconstruction are already underway. Wallander said the European Union, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund should be involved.
"I think the most important message is that it's not just the United States, it's actually these international institutions. And I think the Europeans are very committed to supporting Ukraine," Wallander said.
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Joe Gould is the Pentagon's senior correspondent for defense news, covering the intersection of national security policy, politics and the defense industry. He previously worked as a congressional reporter.
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Russia may now be in an era of irreversible decline. However, this is shown by long-term trends.
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The once vaunted Russian army is crumbling in Ukraine. They will either lose completely or remain in a hopeless war for years to come. Despite the rigged referendums in September, her attempt to legitimize her takeover of Ukrainian territory not only drew ridicule, but was quickly challenged in the most profound way – Ukrainian armed forces liberated the territory from the Russian aggressor.
These losses reverberated wide and deep in Eurasia. In Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Russia's critical link to the region, is worried about the Kremlin's intentions. Its Russian-populated northern regions could easily become the Kremlin's next geopolitical adventure if the war in Ukraine ends with some sort of Russian success. This encourages its executives to play their China card; Xi Jinping made the commitment during a September 14 visit, saying rather bitterly that "we will continue to resolutely support Kazakhstan in protecting its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity."
But perhaps the biggest changes are taking place in the South Caucasus, where Armenia and Azerbaijan, two longtime rivals, are adjusting to the new reality created by a wounded and weakened Russia, even as they try to deal with the lingering effects of another mountain. . -War in Karabakh 2020. Azerbaijan sees Russia as concerned about Ukraine and is trying to get the best advantage. Armenia, which has been denied Russian military aid during recent fighting, has been under intense pressure from Azerbaijan to recognize its territorial integrity.
The European Union (EU) has encouraged negotiations between the parties, but the signing of a peace agreement remains difficult to achieve and will continue to be so in the near future. The EU does not have the leverage to push it through, while Russia is not yet weak enough to ignore it. This creates an ambiguity that is dangerous for the countries of the South Caucasus. As peace efforts falter, Armenia and Azerbaijan prepare for another round of competition and a chance to continue fighting.
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Armenia was the loser of 2020 and is still reeling from the loss, having just announced a 47 percent increase in its military budget for next year. Details are few on the systems they will seek, and the $1.2 billion total still falls short of Azerbaijan's $2.6 billion defense budget, but the trajectory is clear. With Russia unable to prevent future escalation in the South Caucasus, Armenia must become more self-sufficient in preparing for future conflicts.
Russia's inability or unwillingness to influence events also forces Armenia to look for a new arms supplier. There is little choice, given that arms shipments from Russia to Armenia have been delayed for almost a year, another indication of insufficient military industrial capacity.
So step forward in India. The two countries signed an agreement worth about $245 million to buy Indian artillery systems and anti-tank missiles. India's involvement may come as a surprise to many, but the rivalry with Pakistan, which supports Azerbaijan (and has not even recognized the existence of Armenia), is now quietly spreading to the South Caucasus.
Moreover, Armenian analysts and even politicians are now more vocal in criticizing Russia and emphasizing the need to reconsider
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