Medium Tom Cooper - After Shoygu's announcement that Russia will now focus on the 'important thing' - the 'liberation of Donbass' - on 29 March, his deputy, Aleksandar Formin, announced that Russia would 'significantly reduce' military operations in Ukraine, withdrawing parts. from Kyiv and Chernihiv region and so on. Despite the noise in some Western media, I am not that impressed: at least, such announcements are intended for home use and mean nothing. The same applies to the discussions between the Russian and Ukrainian ambassadors in Istanbul: contrary to the Russian policy, the round of International on March 29 ended unexpectedly and no new meeting is scheduled for the next two weeks.
Ironically, some Russian umbrellas are currently angry about the talks: Putin is accused of "collapse", and only talks are being sought on prisoner exchanges and human corridors. In addition, they do not like discussions led by 'Jews' (Abramovich).
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In fact, the RFA destroyed more than half of the 120 BTGs deployed against Ukraine: neither Putin, nor the Keystone Police in Moscow expected to fight an ongoing war in hostile territory, even less so against large and it is well liked (probably more than 300,000 currently). They are not ready to compromise, maybe they are not informed of the real situation on the battlefield by their supervisors, they cannot accept the situation in Ukraine: instead, they just buy time to bring more reinforcements from the West ( now it seems that they are pulling. most of the stored products are sold out). Currently, they are bringing in personnel from the 4th Military Base (two BTGs from South Ossetia) and the 7th Military Base (one BTG from Abkhazia), but it is not clear where this will be used.
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At the time there were many Belarusians fighting on the side of Ukraine, that two of their armies were combined with the Pahonya Regiment. More developed and a unit with an entirely Muslim staff: this wears the current title of the Crimea Battalion.
Yesterday (March 30), early in the morning, a Russian weapons depot outside the village of Oktybarskoye, near Belogorod exploded. The Ukrainians say it was hit by one of the Tochka Missile Brigade 19th ballistic missiles, but I haven't seen any confirmation of this (at least: yet). If you think about how the Russians store their weapons - no wonder...
On the night of March 28, the air defense of Ukraine said that two missiles were shot down flying towards Lviv, about 30 kilometers from the city. Another Russian cruise missile strike then destroyed 'all fuel and lubricant products' stored at Starokostiantyniv Airport, Khmelnytsky Region. As mentioned earlier, on the morning of March 29, a naval missile destroyed the district administration building in Mykolaiv, killing 13 and injuring more than 30. It seems that the air defense of Kyiv was unsuccessful: apparently, they received two incoming missiles during the night from 29 to 30 March.
Yesterday, Keystone Police in Moscow said that another Ukrainian Su-24 was shot down, 'near the village of Tumen' (Rivne region), in 'air warfare'. The Russians also claimed to have shot down another 10 UAVs in Ukraine…
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The Russians gave evidence of the reduction of the TB.2 Of Ukraine, though (see attached picture): the second time in this war so far.
In general, there is no sign of Russia's withdrawal. No one from the 35th and 36th CAA 'returned home': units are reorganized. In the past two days, the people of Ukraine have continued to move forward. On the 29th, they attacked the north of Irpin from three sides, and forced the remaining Russians from the northern part of the city, as well as the villages of Svitylnia, Hebelky and Ploske. The attacks on Bucha and Hosttomel were of a different nature, although they were unsuccessful.
Using Nizhyn as a base, the Ukrainian 1st Armored Brigade liberated the village of Sloboda, south of Chernihiv: it can now be freed in the village of Yahidne, on the M01 road, south of the city, too; however, there is no guarantee of this and the city remains under siege and under constant airstrikes and artillery fire.
In the south, the situation began to clear. The Ukrainians liberated Nova Basan, thus forcing the second CCAA to retreat to the hills and forests north of the H07 road, where it tried to establish a front line, 70 kilometers long, almost adjacent to Bohdanivka - Kozatske. There is no news about the situation in the east, from H07 to Konotop, which makes me think that 'something is happening there': it could be an opportunity, then such a movement through Ukraine will force withdrawal completely of 2nd GCAA. through the M02 route back to Russia.
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In Sumy region, the front line is stable north of H07, north and northeast of the city. The city of Krasnopilia, in the east, is firmly controlled by Ukraine. Ukraine's operations in this area seem to be concentrated in the 93rd Mech, with many infantry and support troops. These forces only deal with the five BTGs of the second GMRD: all other units of the first GTA (example: 4th GTD, 27th GMRB, 47th GTD) seem to have been withdrawn from Ukraine to the Kursk region, Russia. Instead of the 1st GTA, the West OSK is increasingly sending units that have soldiers recruited in Donbass. Several have been killed or imprisoned.
Kharkiv is under heavy artillery fire: the defenders there have counted 180 volleys of BM-21 Grad rocket-propelled grenades that hit the city since March 1, and 39 missiles hit on March 30 alone. That said, Russian forces did not attack the city. On the contrary, it was the 92nd Mech of Ukraine attacking them - even if it was far to the southeast as I understood (and reported), three days ago. Instead in the area of Husarivka, it attacked three Russian BTGs - including one from the 59th Tank Regiment, and two from the 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade - and that in the area between Malaya Rogan and Vilkhivka, directly east outside Kharkiv, between 25. and 28 March. Reinforced by Area Defense elements, the 92nd destroyed all three BTGs, capturing their HQs with full paper and communication gear, along with 60 survivors. With this, the 6th CAA lost almost half of its BTGs, while the Ukrainians defended the entire M03 road from Kharkiv to Chuhuiv.
Especially: after the destruction of the Ukrainian S-300 SAM-site defending Kharkiv, already back on the first day of the war (and, apparently, with several Iskandar ballistic missiles), the 92nd Mech was protected by a Buk. SAM site during this operation. The latter are known to have shot down at least one Ka-52 and several Russian UAVs, in the past few days.
The question is now: what group of Ukraine attacked the 144th MRD in Husarivka and thus undermined the Russian attack on both sides of Izium, at the same time? Now, I don't know the answer, but pictures and videos from the area show at least a bunch of MSTA-S personal vehicles and support vehicles. What is certain is that the Ukrainians have now shown a number of photos and videos of the Russian machines destroyed there (see below for an example), that the 81st Airborne has returned to the south of Izium, and that the village of Topolske, Kamyanka. , and Thyhotske is under Ukrainian control.
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More Russian attacks in this area should be expected in the coming days, then RUMINT has it that the RFA has currently placed more troops between Kursk and Rostov than it had before the war.
The RFA continued to shell Rubizhne, Lysychnsk and Popasna in the Severodonetsk region, but launched only small ground attacks, all of which were repulsed. In the east and south, the Ukrainian Army reported fighting along the entire LOC in the Donbas region, from Popasna and Svitlodarsk in the north to Vuhledar in the south, but again: no major ground offensive has been launched.
Mariupol... and is subject to pollution and fierce competition. There is clear evidence that the Russians have captured two main military bases in the city: one of the Naval Infantry Brigade 36, and one of the Azov Battalion. Both were empty, however.
49th CAA tried to attack in a different direction to Oleksandrivka (south of Mykolaiv), yesterday, but otherwise it will withdraw north to Kherson. Among others, Ukrainians liberated Zahradivka, Kochubeyivka, and Orlove, yesterday. After him, the activity of Ti Ukrain tribes was reported on the banks of the Dnepr in the northern and southern regions of Kherson. After heavy losses to Ukrainian artillery of Kherson Airport, VKS moved to Chaplynka Airport. In the background, your engineers are doing whatever they can. For example, Antonovsky bridge, near Kherson.
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From Austria; specializing in the analysis of modern wars; I work as a writer, illustrator, and editor for the Helion & Co. book series.
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